ICSC@Whistler: High signal at high altitude and what it means for retail owners in Manitoba
“7th Heaven” on Blackcomb
I’m back from ICSC@Whistler where it was equal parts dealmaking and market intel.
Between 15+ scheduled meetings, the in-between hallway conversations, and the apres-ski circuit, I advanced active transactions and came home with a clear set of themes on investor sentiment, retailer expansion plans, and where deals are actually getting done.
Below are a few takeaways through a Manitoba lens, and how I think they may impact owners over the next 12–24 months.
1) Manitoba retail investment dollar volume is set to rise
In a market our size, a small number of larger trades can shift overall volume quickly. There may be some extra attention put on our market as a result of positive investment headlines in the near and medium term.
Owner takeaway: if you’re considering a sale, refinancing, or a major repositioning, the market should reward owners who prepare early with clean reporting, a clear leasing story, and a well-supported view of NOI durability or upside.
2) Capital has loosened and may outpace quality opportunities
Retail debt and equity markets have improved considerably over the last 12 months. Available capital will likely exceed the number of good opportunities, which is supportive of values.
At the same time, many owners have spent recent years focused on optimization including building and property upgrades, tenant mix improvements, renewals, expense management, and operations. Those efforts matter now as certain assets are primed for disposition.
Owner takeaway: if you’ve been improving your centre, you may be closer to a “prime for disposition” window than you think. If not, consider optimization efforts. Some ideas don’t require considerable time or capital. This will pay off at the time of future disposition, refinancing, or unforeseen tenant failure.
3) Retailers are not moving as one
Retailer strategies vary widely. Some are expanding aggressively, others are experiencing challenges, and the risk profile for an owner differs not only by category, but by operator within the same category.
Owner takeaway: leasing strategy needs to be more intentional than ever. The right use is always important, and the right operator can help stabilize income and support value. The wrong operator can create hidden risk even when the category looks healthy at a high level.
4) Development is returning but Manitoba still has friction
Retail development is coming back nationally, and that trend is positive. However, construction costs and land value assumptions remain meaningful roadblocks to new retail supply in Manitoba. Multifamily development opportunity on retail land inventory has conflated values which will only be flushed out as the feasibility of multifamily development is vetted and value expectations better align with retail development characteristics. At the same time, rents have been on the rise, reflecting both higher costs and continued demand for great real estate.
My expectation is modest new inventory, even as tenant demand continues to outpace supply in good trade areas.
Owner takeaway: well-located centres with strong access, visibility, and parking should remain in a favourable position, particularly where there’s a credible path to intensification, redevelopment, or an angle for tenant mix improvements over time.
Gaining high signal at high altitude
This is the part of the job I love most. Being on the frontlines of information, connecting the dots early, and turning sound advice into exceptional outcomes for clients.
If you own retail real estate in Manitoba and want a candid read on pricing, optimization opportunities, or tenant demand, feel free to reach out.
Also, keep an eye out for St. Vital Centre headlines in the near future.
And yes, ICSC@Whistler included a little mountain time. 23,485 vertical feet, 14 lifts, and the peak-to-peak gondola at Whistler Blackcomb last Sunday. We were incredibly grateful for the bluebird day. The views went on for miles across the mountain tops!